Through two years of heavy transfer portal activity, national titles are not being won through the portal. More on transfers and the evolution of the BCR will be coming soon.” And though they’re important, they are rarely consequential enough to turn a non-contender into a contender. Transfers (not junior college) are not governed by the same recruit rules. But recruiting is by far the most important piece when it comes to separating the good from the great. Not to lump them into the same category, but nobody ever accused Gene Chizik, Les Miles, Mack Brown, or Ed Orgeron of being tactical masterminds.Ĭoaching matters. On the other hand, there are examples of coaches who are not regarded as premier head men who have won it all thanks to elite recruits. Plenty of coaches who are regarded as elite have never sniffed winning it all because they cannot accumulate enough talent. But nobody wins a national title by player development in lieu of elite recruiting. That is not to say that development does not matter. And they are getting better annually due to advancements in technology and data. For every two-star who becomes a big success, there are multiples who will be going pro in something other than sports. And five-stars are about 33 times more likely to be All-Americans as two-stars are. Four- and five-star recruits are about 10 times more likely to be drafted in the first round than their two- and three-star counterparts. But they are damn good, especially in the aggregate. Teams who sign elite class after elite class have greater competition in practice, and greater quality of depth. Even those teams who stay relatively healthy need depth to survive the season. The requirement to stack talent on top of talent makes sense when considering the violence of the sport of football. It does not guarantee a national championship, but a team not meeting it is almost certainly guaranteed not to win it all. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
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